Systematic Finance
Systematic Finance

Company Valuation Model

Corporate Credit Analysis, Forecasting and ValuationĀ 

Integrated Excel application for:

  • Credit analysis - accounts, ratios, cash flow
  • Loan and bankruptcy analysis - cover ratios, Z scores
  • Forecasting - input key 'drivers' to produce forecast profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow
  • Company valuation - accounting, market, dividend and free cash flow methods

Enter up to five years profit and loss and balance sheets for a company and use the information for credit and valuation. The model allows you to import and export existing cases or scenarios without having to save multiple versions of the file.

Send an email to Alastair Day if you would like more information. We have produced customised versions for banks and other institutions.

Example: Ratio Analysis

Model Specification

Main Option

Statement

Details
Inputs Inputs Enter initial data about your organisation, client, currency, proposed loan and credit facilities
    - Your company details - these then appear at the top of each schedule
    - Loan facilities
    - Proposed loan - this is used to calculate 'loan cover'
    - Units and currency in use
    Enter up to five years' income data in a standardised format
Enter Data Income Statement Enter up to five years' income data in a standardised format
    Extra entries to reconcile the profit loss statement to the change in net worth
  Balance Sheet Enter up to five years balance sheet against standard headers
    Automatic checking of totals assets and liabilities
    Enter extra information on number of shares issued, share prices, cost of capital and no of employees.
View Cash Flow View cash flow statement which consists of net operating profit, EBITDA and net operating cash flow.
    Deductions for interest, tax, CAPEX to outflow or inflow before financing.
    New loans and shares to derive the cash inflow and outflow reconciled to changes in the bank account.
  Ratio Analysis View a listing of ratios together with graphs of the data growth factors
    - Core ratios
    - Profitability
    - Operating efficiency
    - Financial structure
    - Cash flow ratios
    - Market-related ratios
    - Cost of capital
    - Efficiency based on the number of employees
    Active graph of any of the components as absolute values or based on the first year as 100.
Forecast Forecast Select forecast as a statistical figure, last year or a mean of two or four years' data
    Application uses key drivers to forecast the profit and loss, balance sheet, cash flow and ratio analysis.
    - Enter key drivers e.g. sales growth
  Loan - Equity Increase/(Decrease)
    Accept the calculation or enter your own inputs for any of the years and 'drivers'
View Income Statement View income statement for entered historic periods and 5 years' forecast data set out as above
  Balance Sheet View forecast balance sheet for historic and forecasted periods
  Cash Flow View cash flow statement
  Ratio Analysis View ratio analysis and graphs
    Active' graph of any of the components as absolute values or based on the first year as 100.
  Summary View summary sheet - profit and loss, balance sheet, cash flow and ratios
    Graph of core ratios - return on sales (ROS), asset utilisation ratio (AUR) and asset leverage (AL).
    'Active' graph of any of the components as absolute values or based on the first year as 100.
    Percentage change graph. You enter the threshold percentage for display.
  Du Pont Core Ratios View 'Du Pont' tree of ratios for the entered and forecast data
    Graphical explanation for core ratios - return on sales (ROS), asset utilisation ratio (AUR) and asset leverage (AL)
    Select all the year in the model
    Change the sales growth and override the calculated components for 'what-if' analysis.
Valuation Market/Adjusted Book Values Enter and view market and accounting-based valuation techniques
    - Accounting asset value
    - Adjusted accounting value
    - Gordon's dividend growth model valuation
    - Market-based measures e.g. P/E ratio
    - Economic or residual profit added
    - Market value added
  Free Cash Flow Valuation Operating free cash flow valuation and sensitivity tables and graph
    The model calculates:
    - Cost of capital.
    - User can override the inputs for debt cost, risk free rate and risk premium
    - Operating free cash flow for valuation purposes
    - Terminal value in terms of EV/EBITDA and input value perpetuity
    - Enterprise value
    - Value of equity
    There are sensitivity graphs plotting the terminal value against the risk free rate, equity risk premium and beta
    Sensitivity graph of sales growth against the equity risk premium
    Comparison graph of valuation by the different market and free cash flow methods.
    Methodology for working back from a free calculation equity value by solving the necessary annual sales growth percentages
Exit Exit Exit with options to quit without saving, save file only, save with back-up or cancel.

 

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